March 22nd, 2016 08:53 AM
It is Statistically Improbable to Stop Trump! Based on current polls, research, trends, and numbers there won’t be A Contested Convention!
As the fight over a contested or brokered convention rages on, we had to take a look and see if the fight was over nothing. The question at hand, is it statistically improbable for Donald Trump NOT to get the 1237 Delegates he needs to secure the nomination for the Republican Candidate?
After taking a look at all of the polling that exists combined with what has transpired so far, as long as voter turnout stays the same through June, it is statistically improbable for Trump not to hit 1237 Delegate Count and not become the nominee.
Here is what we see as of March 22nd, 2016. We don’t even need to focus on Kasich or Cruz because it is statistically improbable for them to get the 1237 based on many polls and their current delegate count. So let’s focus on Trump alone in order to solve the fight over the contested convention.
Trump currently has 678 Delegates and needs 559 more delegates to secure the nomination. There are some winner take all state primaries and caucuses coming up and based on polling and recent delegate results we can assume, (with very little doubt), that Trump will easily win 6 of these states. The six states are:
- Arizona – 58 Winner Take All Delegates
- Wisconsin – 42 Winner Take All Delegates
- Maryland – 38 Winner Take All Delegates
- Pennsylvania – 71 Winner Take All Delegates
- California – 172 Winner Take All Delegates
- New Jersey – 51 Winner Take All Delegates
Arizona - Arizona polling and the Real Clear Politics average for trump has him averaging 13 points over Ted Cruz and over 20 points on Kasich. He has support from Jan Brewer (famous for challenging Federal Immigration Law), Sheriff Joe Arpaio, ( creator of prison based “Tent City”), and a bunch of angry Arizonians ready for a wall that’s 20 foot tall and comes with armed guards. Trump will win 58 delegates in Arizona with ease on immigration alone.
Wisconsin - In every poll released, Ted Cruz and John Kasich have never been in contention with Donald Trump in Wisconsin. Trump has consistently polled well ahead in Wisconsin and therefore will win 42 delegates in Wisconsin.
Maryland – Cruz and Kasich have consistently underperformed against Trump in Maryland polling but furthermore, Trump has so far dominated every state in the East except 2. Kasich’s spoiler race in Ohio and a Cruz win in Maine. Trump will win Maryland and gain 38 Delegates.
Pennsylvania – Trump dominates Cruz and Kasich in Pennsylvania and Hillary, too should be worried about this state in the general election. Trump will pick up 71 delegates in Pennsylvania.
California - Trump outperforms Cruz in California and anything short of a complete breakdown in voting or an act of God in favor of Ted Cruz, Trump will win California and 172 delegates.
New Jersey – Ted Cruz and John Kasich have no chance whatsoever of winning New Jersey. Polling shows it and if you look closely, you might just see Chris Christie standing behind Trump at the next rally, press conference, or speech (Potential Vice President). Trump wins New Jersey and 51 delegates.
So now we have gone over 6 of the remaining 11 winner take all states that barring a catastrophe, Trump will win hands down. The total amount of delegates of these winner take all states is 432. Add on Donald Trump’s current delegate count of 678 and he will likely have a total of 1110 out of the needed 1237 with more delegates to gain in 13 states. Now, he needs just 127 delegates to clinch the nomination.
Now let’s talk about 5 more states out of the remaining 13 where Trump will likely dominate as well.
- New York – 95 Bound Delegates up for grabs
- Connecticut – 25 Bound Delegates up for grabs.
- Delaware – 16 Bound Delegates up for grabs.
- Rhode Island – 19 Winner Take All
- West Virginia – 34 Bound Delegates up for grabs.
Four of these 5 states are winner take most states. In these 4 states, Donald Trump is dominating in the polls. Delaware didn’t have any reliable polling available but recent results in the Eastern United States can pretty much guarantee Delaware a win for Trump and a win of 19 delegates.
The other 4 states are winner take most. Each delegate allocation changes from state to state but we can guarantee at least 51% of the delegates will go to the winner. Which is 87 delegates out of a total of 173. This would put Trump’s total delegates at 1197 at the very least. These states are actually all Trump needs to win the nomination but he could possibly end up a tiny bit short.
The thing is, it doesn’t matter. There are 8 more states where Donald Trump could get his delegates from. Indiana, Nebraska, Montana, and South Dakota are winner take all. If Trump takes any two of these, the nomination is secured and the 1237 race is over. Any one of these combined with a 51% New York victory, it’s over.
In Oregon, Washington, and New Mexico, the delegates are awarded proportionally which works in Trump’s favor being so close to 1237 delegates. Remember he will need somewhere around 40 more.
If Trump wins 40 of the remaining 279 bound delegates in Utah, Indiana, Nebraska, Oregon, Washington, Montana, New Mexico or South Dakota the contested convention is over. Considering he has been getting 54% of the delegates overall, this is very likely to happen.
If Trump gets more than 51% of the delegates in New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and West Virginia, which he likely will, the improbability gets even higher of Trump not reaching 1237. Polls show New York is going to be a landslide victory for Trump and there are 95 total delegates for grabs. I only accounted for Trump getting 48 of those delegates in this simulation.
As long as Trump wins Arizona, Wisconsin, Maryland, Pennsylvania, California, and New Jersey, which he will by a long shot according to every poll, he gets all the delegates in these states and pretty much wraps up the nomination.
One state we haven’t mentioned is Colorado which has 37 delegates which will be determined on April 9th at the state’s convention.
So in conlcusion, it is statistically improbable for Trump NOT to hit the 1237 delegates before the convention.
So, we are not Prophets or the Son or daughters of a Prophet. We don’t have a crystal ball and we don’t read palms and tea leaves. And we sure don’t know what tricks the Establishment Elite think they can get by with pulling out of a hat, BUT based on current trends, polls, and research, he WILL likely get more than the necessary 1237 delegates. And WHEN that happens, the Elite will have to cave in and do what’s right for the country at the convention.
One thing we know, there are a bunch of people in DC who are WORRIED they are going to lose their jobs on January 21st, 2017 and they are running scared.